把握机遇 携手前行 共同推进中欧金融合作共赢——潘光伟专职副天美九一厂制作在亚金协·中东欧金融前沿问题论坛上的演讲
2017年11月29日，匈牙利布达佩斯
尊敬的痴补谤驳补部长，各位嘉宾，女士们，先生们：
大家上午好！非常高兴能在美丽的深秋时节来到欧洲著名古城布达佩斯，这座“多瑙河明珠”给我留下了难以磨灭的印象。
下面，我想就全球经济复苏与中欧合作谈一点粗浅的认识与想法。英国文学家狄更斯在《双城记》中是这样开篇的：“这是最好的时代，也是最坏的时代。”我想这句话也同样适用于当前的全球经济发展。
一方面，世界经济总体保持复苏态势。据国际货币基金组织（IMF）数据显示，今年以来全球几乎所有主要经济体经济都处于增长状态，且经济增速快于预期。经济合作与发展组织(OECD)在8月底也曾发布报告称，该组织追踪的所有45个国家今年都有望实现经济增长，其中33个国家的增速预计将快于去年，这是2007年以来所有45个国家第一次全都实现经济增长，也是2010年以来经济增速加快国家数量最多的一次。IMF 10月将今明两年的全球经济增速预期分别上调至3.6%和3.7%。
近年来，面对经济增长比较优势与要素禀赋的变化，中国政府着力推进供给侧结构性改革，经济增长基础更加稳固，经济增速、就业、物价、国际收支等主要指标好于预期。过去4年，中国经济平均增长率为7.2%，高于同期世界2.6%和发展中经济体4%的平均增长水平，对世界经济增长的平均贡献率超过30%。今年上半年，国民经济运行稳中有进、稳中向好，GDP同比增长6.9%，连续8个季度稳定在6.7%-6.9%的区间。“三去一降一补”效果明显，经济结构不断优化。2016年，钢铁产能退出6500万吨以上；截至今年10月，年度煤炭和钢铁的去产能任务已经超额完成。经济预期不断向好。截至2017年10月末，制造业采购经理指数为51.6%，连续15个月处于景气区间。2017年10月，规模以上工业增加值增长6.2%；上半年全国规模以上中小工业公司增加值同比增长了7.6%。公司利润稳步增长。2017年前三季度，全国规模以上工业公司实现利润总额5.6万亿元，同比增长22.8%；主营业务收入利润率为6.2%，同比提高0.5个百分点。改革驱动经济改善，公司盈利推动实体部门信用风险缓解。
在向好的外部环境下，银行业总体运行稳健。首先，银行业资产和负债规模稳步增长。截至2017年三季度末，商业银行总资产、负债规模分别为247万亿元和228万亿元，同比增长10.87%和10.86%；其次，信贷资产质量总体平稳，不良贷款余额1.7万亿元，不良贷款率1.7%。再次，利润增速有所回升，当年累计实现净利润1.4万亿元，同比增长7.4%；平均资产利润率和资本利润率分别为1.02%和13.94%。第四，风险抵补能力继续加强，贷款损失准备余额为3万亿元。拨备覆盖率高达180%，贷款拨备率3.13%，核心一级资本充足率为10.7%，一级资本充足率为11.2%，资本充足率为13.3%。第五，流动性水平保持稳健。商业银行流动性比例为49%，存贷比为70%，流动性覆盖率120%。
当前，监管部门把防范金融风险放到更加重要的位置上，中国银行业总体运行稳健，且盈利水平相对较好，有较强的风险抵补能力，不良资产规模在全球范围内也处于合理水平，加之外汇储备比较充足，因此可以预期，未来中国银行业会继续保持稳健运行，风险总体可控。
当然，另一方面，我们也要清醒地认识到，世界经济虽然总体保持复苏态势，但仍然面临增长动力不足、需求不振、金融市场反复动荡、国际贸易和投资持续低迷等多重风险和挑战。上一轮科技进步带来的增长动能逐渐衰减，新一轮科技和产业革命尚未形成势头。主要经济体先后进入老龄化社会，人口增长率下降，给各国经济社会带来压力。经济全球化出现波折，保护主义、内顾倾向抬头，多边贸易体制受到冲击。金融监管改革虽有明显进展，但高杠杆、高泡沫等风险仍在积聚。
面对全新的挑战，中国把握时代脉搏、洞察发展大势，提出创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大发展新理念。这五大新理念不仅契合中国的经济发展规律，也同样契合世界经济发展规律，是中国的，也是世界的。中国经济快速增长，为全球经济稳定和增长提供了持续强大的推动；中国同一大批国家的联动发展，使全球经济发展更加平衡；中国改革开放持续推进，为开放型世界经济发展提供了重要动力。
习近平主席在2017年达沃斯论坛上强调，中国的发展是世界的机遇，中国是经济全球化的受益者，更是贡献者。中国人民欢迎各国人民搭乘中国发展的“快车”、“便车”。预计未来5年，中国将进口8万亿美元商品、吸收6000亿美元外来投资，对外投资总额将达到7500亿美元，出境旅游将达到7亿人次。中国提出的“一带一路”倡议，核心内涵就是促进基础设施建设和互联互通，加强经济政策协调和发展战略对接，促进协同联动发展，实现共同繁荣。这一倡议源自中国，更属于世界；根植于历史，更面向未来；重点面向亚欧非大陆，更向所有伙伴开放。“一带一路”沿线60多个国家有40多亿人口，约占世界人口的63%，是一个巨大的潜在市场和发展空间。
中东欧国家一直是中国的重要伙伴，中东欧16国是“一带一路”沿线重要国家,在“一带一路”沿线60多个国家中占了1/4,中国与中东欧国家通过互联互通、国际产能合作、战略对接等抓手,将为“一带一路”建设作出更多贡献,造福于全球各国人民。今年5月，匈牙利总理欧尔班访华，会见习近平主席，签署联合声明，两国建立全面战略伙伴关系。近年，中国中东欧合作也已经取得诸多扎实的成果，匈塞铁路等基础设施建设项目在当地树立了中国公司良好的信誉和口碑。继2003年中国银行（匈牙利）有限公司正式成立，中国银行业在中东欧地区设立第一家经营性金融机构以来，大型银行加快中东欧地区机构布局，同时积极推进相关业务。2016年6月，中国工商银行与波兰国家开发银行签署中东欧基金合作协议,双方将以中东欧基金为平台,推动经贸和产业合作；中国银行获准担任布达佩斯人民币清算行,与波兰财政部签署熊猫债发行合作备忘录,人民币国际化在中东欧迈出了历史性的一步；今年5月，中国建设银行波兰华沙分行正式开业，为推动两国在基础设施、贸易投资等领域深入合作提供了重要保障。从服务上来看,目前中资银行在中东欧国家设立的分支机构已可以为公司和个人提供存贷款、贸易融资、国际结算、资金交易、电子银行、账户管理、理财服务等全方位的金融服务。就在刚才，我还代表中国银行业协会与匈牙利银行协会签署合作谅解备忘录，共同携手利用“一带一路”倡议和匈牙利“向东开放”政策所带来的历史机遇，推动两国银行业深入合作。
发展之路没有终点，只有新的起点。中国与中东欧深厚友谊底蕴悠久，后劲绵长，我相信，在实现“一带一路”倡议及打造人类命运体的新征程中，中国与匈牙利、中东欧的互信互助之路将开创更加辉煌的前景。
谢谢大家!
Seize the Opportunity, Work Together to Promote Sino-European Financial Win-win Cooperation
-Speech at the AFCA-CEE Financial Summit Forum
Pan Guangwei, Chief Executive Officer
China Banking Association
Budapest, Hungary, 29 Nov. 2017
Distinguished Minister Varga, dear friends, ladies and gentlemen,
Good morning! I’m delighted to come to the famous city Budapest in this beautiful season. The "Pearl of the Danube" has made a lasting impression on me.
Next, I’d like to share with you some of my views and understanding on the global economic recovery and China-EU cooperation. “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” These are the words used by the British writer Charles Dickens to begin his novel A Tale of Two Cities. I think they also apply to the current global economic development. Fortunately, there are more good news than bad news.
On the one hand, the world economy as a whole remains recovering. According to the IMF data, almost all the major economies in the world have seen economic growth this year and faster than expected. The OECD also released a report in late August that all 45 economies it tracks will grow this year, the first time this has happened since 2007. Moreover, 33 of these countries will grow faster this year than they did last year, a record high since 2010. In October, the IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for the next two years to 3.6% and 3.7% respectively.
As for China, in recent years, facing with the changes in economic growth comparative advantages and factor endowment, the Chinese government has made great efforts to promote structural reforms on the supply side to have the economy grow on a more solid basis. The major indictors, such as GDP growth, employment, price, international balance of payments, are better than expected. Over the past four years, China's economy grew at an average rate of 7.2%, higher than the world average of 2.6% in the same period and 4% in the developing economies, with an average contribution rate of more than 30% to world economic growth. In the first half of this year, the national economy continued its steady growth. GDP grew by 6.9% over the same period of last year and remained in the range of 6.7% -6.9% for eight consecutive quarters. The effect of the strategy of "de-capacity, de-stocking, de-leveraging, cost-declining, remedy the short-board" is remarkable, and the economic structure continues to be optimized. The production capacity of steel has been reduced by over 65 million tons. As of October this year, the annual task of de-capacity of coal and steel has been over-fulfilled. The economic expectations continue to improve. As of the end of October 2017, the manufacturing PMI was 51.6%, staying in the prosperity zone for 15 consecutive months. In October 2017, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2%. In the first half of this year, the added value of SMEs above designated size increased by 7.6% over the same period of last year. Corporate profits increased steadily. In the first three quarters of 2017, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.6 trillion yuan, up 22.8% year on year; the profit margin of main business income was 6.2%, up 0.5 percentage point year on year. The reform drives economic improvement and the corporate earnings help with the credit risk mitigation in the real sector.
In this favorable external environment, the banking industry has been in a sound development.?Firstly, the scale of banking assets and liabilities has grown steadily.?As of the end of the 3rd quarter of 2017, the total assets and liabilities of China's banking financial institutions stood respectively at RMB 247 trillion (about 37 trillion US dollars) and 228 trillion (about 34 trillion US dollars), up by 10.87% and 10.86% year on year.?Secondly, the overall quality of credit assets remained stable with a NPL balance of RMB 1.7 trillion, NPL ratio of 1.7%.? Thirdly, the profit growth has picked up.?The net profit up to now was 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4% over the same period of last year. The average ROA and ROE were 1.02% and 13.94% respectively. Fourthly, the risk compensation capacity continued to strengthen.?The balance of loan losses for commercial banks was over 3 trillion yuan. The provision coverage rate reached as high as 180%, and the loan provision rate was 3.13%. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks was 10.7%, the tier 1 capital adequacy ratio 11.2% and the capital adequacy ratio was 13.3%.?Fifthly, the liquidity levels remained stable.?The liquidity ratio of commercial banks was 49%, the loan-to-deposit ratio 70% and the liquidity coverage was 120%.
At present, the regulators in China put the prevention of financial risks in a more important position. Given the above data, the banking industry in China has been in sound operation with relatively good profitability and strong capacity to offset the risks. Moreover, non-performing assets are also at a reasonable level on a global scale and the foreign exchange reserve is abundant. It is therefore reasonable to expect that China banking industry will continue to maintain a sound and stable development in the future with the overall risks under control.?
However, on the other hand, we must also be soberly aware that the world economy, while still on the road to recovery, faces multiple risks and challenges such as weak growth momentum, sluggish demand, volatility in the financial markets and continued downturn in international trade and investment. The growth momentum generated by the last round of scientific and technological progress is diminishing, while the new round of technological and industrial revolution has yet to take shape. Population aging is happening in all major economies, and the decline in population growth put economic and social pressure on countries. The Economic globalization is suffering setbacks, protectionism and inward-looking trends are on the rise, and the multilateral trading regime is under pressure. Although the financial regulatory reform has made significant progress, the risks of high leverage and bubbles continue to build up.
Faced with these new challenges, China seizes the pulse of the times and proposes five new development concepts of “innovation, coordination, greenness, openness and sharing”. These five new concepts not only fit the law of China's economic development, but also fit the law of world economic development. They are both for China and for the rest of the world. The rapid economic growth in China has provided a sustained and powerful driving force to global economic stability and growth; The coordinated development of China and other countries has balanced the global economic development; And China’s continuous reform and opening up has provided an important impetus to the development of an open world economy.
Therefore, as President Xi Jinping emphasized at the 2017 Davos Forum, China's development is an opportunity for the world. China has not only benefited from economic globalization but also contributed to it. Chinese people welcome the people of other countries aboard the express train of China’s development. In the coming five years, China is expected to import 8 trillion US dollars of goods, attract 600 billion US dollars of foreign investment and make 750 billion US dollars of outbound investment. Chinese tourists will make 700 million overseas visits. The “Belt and Road” Initiative proposed by China calls for joint contribution and it has a clear focus, which is to promote infrastructure construction and connectivity, strengthen coordination on economic policies, enhance complementarity of development strategies and boost interconnected development to achieve common prosperity. This initiative is from China, but it belongs to the world. It is rooted in history, but it is oriented toward the future. It focuses on the Asian, European and African continents, but it is open to all partners. With more than 4 billion people in more than 60 countries along the “Belt and Road”, accounting for about 63% of the world's population, it is a huge potential market and space for development.
The Central & Eastern European (CEE) countries have always been important partners of China. The 16 CEE countries are important to China, accounting for one-fourth of the 60 countries along the "Belt and Road". China and CEE countries, through interconnectivity, capacity cooperation and strategic alliance, will make more contributions to the "Belt and Road" Initiative and will benefit the people of all countries around the world. In May this year, the Hungarian Prime Minister Orban paid a visit to China and met with President Xi Jinping, signing a joint statement and establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. In recent years, the cooperation between China and CEE has also made many solid achievements. To name a few, the infrastructure construction projects such as the Hungarian-Serbian Railway have set up a good reputation for Chinese enterprises. Another example, following the formal establishment of Bank of China (Hungary) Co., Ltd. in 2003, the first Chinese financial institution in CEE, many other large Chinese banks have accelerated their institutional deployment in CEE and actively promoted relevant businesses. For instance, in June 2016, the ICBC and BGK, the Polish national development bank, signed a cooperation agreement, using the Sino-CEE Investment Fund as a platform to promote economic, trade and industrial cooperation. Bank of China is approved to act as the RMB clearing bank in Budapest and signed a MOU on panda bonds issuance with Poland's Ministry of Finance, marking a historical step of RMB internationalization in CEE. In May this year, China Construction Bank opened a branch in Warsaw, providing an important guarantee for promoting the in-depth cooperation between the two countries in such fields as infrastructure, trade and investment. From the service point of view, the branches currently set up by Chinese-funded banks in the CEE countries are able to provide all-round financial services for enterprises and individuals such as deposits and loans, trade finance, international settlement, capital trading, e-banking, account management and wealth management. Moreover, just now, on behalf of China Banking Association, I signed a MOU with the Hungarian Banking Association. The two associations will seize this historic opportunity brought by the "Belt and Road Initiative" and Hungary's "Open to the East" strategy and promote the in-depth cooperation between the banking sectors of the two countries'.
Development is a journey with no end, but with one new departure point after another. The friendship between China and Central & Eastern Europe has a long history and will stay profound. I believe that the road of mutual trust and mutual assistance between China and Hungary, China and the Central & Eastern Europe will create even more brilliant prospects in the new journey of realizing the “Belt and Road Initiative” and building a human community of shared destiny.
Thank you.
